In Greater Phoenix, demand has been declining slowly since early January when demand was 23% above normal. Yesterday’s demand was about 15% above normal. Because inventory is 75% below normal (about 4,000 available single family homes in Greater Phoenix), the decline in demand is nearly unnoticeable. Listings may now only receive 10 offers instead of 20. Despite the decline in demand those remaining buyers still want to buy that property which usually only goes to the highest bidder.
Category Archives: Weekly Market Update
Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 2/18/2022
Prices are increasing slightly faster than they were at the end of 2021 but not as quickly as they were in the first half of 2021. Currently prices are increasing at a 1.8% month over month, up from 1.6% just last month. We may see this go up but unlikely to go up to the 4-5% we saw last year. Definitely be faster than 1.1% from last year.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 2/11/2022
Sensationalism in the news media hurts consumer sentiment. Consumer sentiment has the greatest impact on the market and the economy as a whole. As much as we value our individualism and our ability to think for ourselves, we are heavily influenced by the decisions and actions of others.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 2/4/2022
Inventory is still declining, demand remains consistent, and prices are still increasing. There is no relief in sight. The anticipated January inventory increase never materialized. The expected foreclosure boom didn’t come. The builders are constrained as ever. Mortgage rates are up. Something has to give, but what and when? Our buyers are exhausted and potential sellers don’t know where they will go when they sell.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 1/21/2022
In late summer/early fall, we almost had a supply increase but inventory started declining again in October and now we are at all time, record lows for available inventory. The question is: will it go up or down? All we can do is watch the numbers. There are no trends to help us predict, there is no seasonality to use as a baseline. Earlier today there were fewer than 4800 active listings in Greater Phoenix. These levels do not support our population of over 5 million people. The last time we had 20,000 active listings was 2016 and that was a seller’s market.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 1/14/2022
After nearly two years of headlines and non-experts forecasting a crash, a recent headline reads, “Housing costs will be ‘permanently higher’ following pandemic: Study” I expect to see more headlines like this and hopefully, they will reduce the, “I’ll wait until prices go back down” comments. Waiting has proven to be incredibly expensive. In 2021 alone, Greater Phoenix saw a 28% appreciation rate, and the entire country increased by about 15%. Emotionally, the 2005 market felt a lot like the 2021 market, but the fundamentals of those markets were entirely different. Simply put the 2005 market was based on tremendous demand while the 2021 market was based on nearly non-existent supply.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 12/17/2021
Remember at the beginning of the year we hoped for answers and less political strife? Whether or not those were accomplished remains to be seen but one thing is for sure, 2021 was a year of records. Nationally, median sales prices peaked, for sale inventory bottomed, average days on market bottomed, over-asking price sales peaked, mortgage rates hit all-time lows, and second home demand surged.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 12/10/2021
When you are asked, “How is the market?” what do you say? Is it a great time to buy? Is it a great time to sell? Is it a great time to be a homeowner? I would say yes to all of those. The data supports the continued growth, continued strength, and continued appreciation – just at a slower rate.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 12/3/2021
Yesterday I had lunch with three of Greater Phoenix’s premier real estate analysts. As the conversation moved from appreciation rates to price reductions to data quality to seasonality, the question kept coming up, “What do you think will happen in 2022?” It is forecast season after all. Time to reflect on the year that was and plan for the year ahead.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 11/12/2021
The relationship between supply and demand establishes pricing whether it is for toothpaste, a mani/pedi, Bitcoin, or a house. Demand moves based on consumer sentiment. This is true for Wall Street and Main Street and that is the extent of the similarities between the two.