Residential real estate pulled our economy out of the shortest recession in history. As last year’s market frenzy cools, the severe imbalance of supply and demand lessens and prices continue to increase, just at a slower rate. According to the 2020 US Census, housing units increased by 6.7% while population grew by 7.4%; both were declines from previous decades, but it doesn’t change the fact that demand (population) outpaced supply (housing units). Over the past 10 years, Maricopa County’s population increased by 15.8% and housing units increased by 8.3%.
The biggest news in forbearance is FHA’s extension for entering a forbearance plan. If a borrower has an FHA loan they can now call their servicer through February 28, 2021 to get started on a forbearance plan. For all other mortgage types, the deadline is tomorrow, 12/31/2020.
The biggest news for our industry is the $25 billion in rental assistance which allows landlords to apply for funds to cover rents in arrears, utilities, and other housing costs. This is great for landlords as the majority of landlords are mom & pop investors.
In this 13 minute video, Lydia Wietsma and I discuss the most recent five things you need to know about forbearance. The majority of borrowers leaving forbearance are current upon plan exit, only 13% of borrowers leaving their forbearance plan do so without having a loss mitigation plan in place. There is not much time left if someone needs to take advantage of these CARES Act benefits.
The very low supply and above normal demand has pushed prices up all year. We have been in an appreciating market for 8 years. Year over year, the greater Phoenix is running at about a 17% appreciation rate. The huge increases have made some people afraid we are in a bubble, however, today’s market is dramatically different. Dr. Lawrence Yun said, “There is no comparison” between today’s market and the bubble from 2004-2006.
Experts forecast a stabilizing housing market for 2021. A stable housing market is good. It is expected that inventory will rise and prices will continue to increase, only at a slower rate. This is not a collapse, it is normalization and it is the path towards stability. Be mindful of the fear-mongering headlines, no bubble, no collapse, no foreclosure crisis. In 1710, writer Jonathan Swift wrote, “Falsehood flies and the Truth comes limping after it.” Somethings never change.
In this 13 minute video, Lydia Wietsma and I discuss the most recent five things you need to know about forbearance. The majority of borrowers leaving forbearance are current upon plan exit. There is not much time left if someone needs to take advantage of these CARES Act benefits. We do these updates to helpContinue reading “AZ Forbearance Update (video) 12/16/2020”
2021 talking point: forbearance expiration, foreclosure moratorium expiration, and affordability. New listings are up 6% so far in Q4 2020. November new listings were up 2% year over year. November sales were up 26% year over year. Under contract up 28% year over year. Luxury is a huge part of the increase. 2020 has been a rollercoaster. Any stability in 2021 will be welcome.
We have talked about 3 weeks creates a trend. Well, after two weeks in a row of slight forbearance count increases, we were closely watching the numbers. And this past week, they remained flat, unchanged at 5.54% of loans and roughly 2.8 million loans in a forbearance plan.
No matter what the headlines say, this is not a buyer’s market. With 4 buyers for every listing, we are still very much in a seller’s market.