Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 3/25/2022

The newness of the market frenzy has worn off. Buyers are exhausted and sellers hesitate to list, unsure where they will go. While we know that this market will not last forever, no market ever does, we do not need to wait for the other shoe to drop. Real estate moves slowly and as long as we watch it closely and carefully, we should have a general idea of what to expect.

Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 3/18/2022

Demand is stable. Do not let the headlines fool you, demand is not crazy high right now, it is stable. It seems that demand is so high because of the extremely low inventory. Remind sellers on the fence that it will not last forever. Demand may further weaken, or inventory could rise; both of which limit the strength of the seller’s market.

Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 3/4/2022

In Greater Phoenix, demand has been declining slowly since early January when demand was 23% above normal. Yesterday’s demand was about 15% above normal. Because inventory is 75% below normal (about 4,000 available single family homes in Greater Phoenix), the decline in demand is nearly unnoticeable. Listings may now only receive 10 offers instead of 20. Despite the decline in demand those remaining buyers still want to buy that property which usually only goes to the highest bidder.

Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 2/18/2022

Prices are increasing slightly faster than they were at the end of 2021 but not as quickly as they were in the first half of 2021. Currently prices are increasing at a 1.8% month over month, up from 1.6% just last month. We may see this go up but unlikely to go up to the 4-5% we saw last year. Definitely be faster than 1.1% from last year.

Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 2/11/2022

Sensationalism in the news media hurts consumer sentiment. Consumer sentiment has the greatest impact on the market and the economy as a whole. As much as we value our individualism and our ability to think for ourselves, we are heavily influenced by the decisions and actions of others.

AZ Dealmakers Update

I recently had the privilege of attending the AZ Dealmakers event on January 27, 2022. It is an event that includes industry leaders in the residential new construction arena. The presenters included economists, housing analysts, builders, lenders, and more. The conversation was all about the future of new home development in Arizona. These are my notes and takeaways from the event.

Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 2/4/2022

Inventory is still declining, demand remains consistent, and prices are still increasing. There is no relief in sight. The anticipated January inventory increase never materialized. The expected foreclosure boom didn’t come. The builders are constrained as ever. Mortgage rates are up. Something has to give, but what and when? Our buyers are exhausted and potential sellers don’t know where they will go when they sell.

Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 1/21/2022

In late summer/early fall, we almost had a supply increase but inventory started declining again in October and now we are at all time, record lows for available inventory. The question is: will it go up or down? All we can do is watch the numbers. There are no trends to help us predict, there is no seasonality to use as a baseline. Earlier today there were fewer than 4800 active listings in Greater Phoenix. These levels do not support our population of over 5 million people. The last time we had 20,000 active listings was 2016 and that was a seller’s market.

Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 1/14/2022

After nearly two years of headlines and non-experts forecasting a crash, a recent headline reads, “Housing costs will be ‘permanently higher’ following pandemic: Study” I expect to see more headlines like this and hopefully, they will reduce the, “I’ll wait until prices go back down” comments. Waiting has proven to be incredibly expensive. In 2021 alone, Greater Phoenix saw a 28% appreciation rate, and the entire country increased by about 15%. Emotionally, the 2005 market felt a lot like the 2021 market, but the fundamentals of those markets were entirely different. Simply put the 2005 market was based on tremendous demand while the 2021 market was based on nearly non-existent supply.

AZ Economic & Real Estate Update 12/29/2021

Persistently low inventory combined with above normal demand has driven a 30% median sales price increase this year. Will inventory increase in January? If the market follows past trends then yes. If the market continues like it did in early 2021 then maybe not. We will know more very soon.