Change can be scary. Change is always messy. Change often hurts. The old guard hates change because they created the status quo. The status quo makes sense to them. They thrived in it and they are not bad people for wanting it to continue. But change creates new beginnings. New options. New ways of doingContinue reading “Change”
“Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” Winston Churchill Humans are incapable of making a decision without emotion. This was found when studying people who had lost the ability to feel emotions. They are unable to make choices. Fear and panic insight action. That is how on a non-descript Thursday,Continue reading “Bank Runs & Lower Mortgage Rates 3/14/2023”
The speed of change spooked the 2022 housing market, not just the demand market, but the entire market. Interest rates skyrocketed, listings increased quickly, and demand dried up. And you know what else dried up? New listings.
Founder and owner of the Keystone Law Firm, attorney Francisco Sirvent, discusses the best practices for property and asset protection in a volatile housing and economic environment.
After 8 years of wanting to go, this year I finally got to go to an Inman Connect conference. Earlier this month, I joined 3,000 other real estate professionals at the Aria in Las Vegas to talk about real estate. It was awesome! This is my summary from 36 pages of notes.
Sellers have less power than they did only 6 weeks ago. The market is very different than it was recently. It is not catastrophically bad, but it is far trickier than it was.
While the Greater Phoenix housing market follows the same trends of the national housing market, it does so first (currently running 4-6 weeks ahead versus the usual 6-9 months ahead). The cooling trend emerged 10-12 weeks ago locally, while nationally the trend became more apparent in April. Not only does the Greater Phoenix market run ahead of the national market, it has bigger swings. Our highs are higher and lows are lower. For example, over the past three months, the national single family inventory has increased by 64% and during the same time period, Greater Phoenix’s single family inventory increased by 148%.
There are a lot of forecasts from different publications, analysts, and economists. It seems as though the analysts and economists who are not in real estate tend to predict that home prices will decline. Many of the housing analysts and housing economists say that appreciation will go flat but unlikely go negative by much if at all. I am not sure if the housing analysts either know more than the others or they do not want to give bad news to the real estate industry. I’d like to believe that it is because they know more but at this point, anything could happen.
The US housing market is shifting and it is shifting quickly. The speed in which the changes are happening is making both real estate consumers and practitioners uncomfortable. The velocity of rate increases, the velocity of inflation (despite the very recent modest decline), the velocity of price appreciation, and now the simultaneous velocity of growing inventory and declining buyer demand. Using facts and not emotion is the best way to address the discomfort.
The newness of the market frenzy has worn off. Buyers are exhausted and sellers hesitate to list, unsure where they will go. While we know that this market will not last forever, no market ever does, we do not need to wait for the other shoe to drop. Real estate moves slowly and as long as we watch it closely and carefully, we should have a general idea of what to expect.