Housing economists worry that the Fed has already over-corrected and is leading us to recession because the inflation data is a lagging indicator (tells us where we were). The Fed is expected to increase the Fed funds rate by 0.5% to 0.75% before the end of the year.
Category Archives: Weekly Market Update
Greater Phoenix Housing Update 9/27/2022
Interest rates have been very volatile and while inflation remains persistent despite the Fed’s continued efforts it is unlikely rates will decline any time in the near term. We need rates to be stable and boring and not bounce around like they are. This constant fluctuation is hurting the already tight affordability.
Greater Phoenix Housing Update 8/26/2022
Welcome to a balanced market. We are currently in stage 3 of the market shift, an increase in seller concessions. We will likely stay here for a while. It is important to set clear expectations with your home buyers and sellers. While the days of the runaway seller’s market are long gone, today’s sellers are not desperate (aside from iBuyers) and will not sell if they do not have to. We are working our way through the chaos and a stable market may actually be in sight.
Greater Phoenix Housing Update 7/21/2022
Despite knowing that the market was going to normalize – no market lasts forever, especially not savagely unbalanced, unsustainable markets – but the speed of this change has been surprising, to say the least.
The Greater Phoenix residential real estate market has seen 15 weeks of change but in the past 4-5 weeks that change has been amplified by a lot.
Greater Phoenix Housing Update 6/22/2022
While the Greater Phoenix housing market follows the same trends of the national housing market, it does so first (currently running 4-6 weeks ahead versus the usual 6-9 months ahead). The cooling trend emerged 10-12 weeks ago locally, while nationally the trend became more apparent in April. Not only does the Greater Phoenix market run ahead of the national market, it has bigger swings. Our highs are higher and lows are lower. For example, over the past three months, the national single family inventory has increased by 64% and during the same time period, Greater Phoenix’s single family inventory increased by 148%.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate Market Update 6/15/2022
Overall, active supply is up 92.4% year over year and at the same time listings under contract is down 15.9% year over year. Buyers are seeing inventory rise after two years of rejection. Now is the time to prepare your sellers for what is happening right now. Today’s market is very different from the market of only a few months ago.
5/27/22 National Real Estate Update: Velocity
The US housing market is shifting and it is shifting quickly. The speed in which the changes are happening is making both real estate consumers and practitioners uncomfortable. The velocity of rate increases, the velocity of inflation (despite the very recent modest decline), the velocity of price appreciation, and now the simultaneous velocity of growing inventory and declining buyer demand. Using facts and not emotion is the best way to address the discomfort.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate Market Update 4/19/2022
All eyes are on interest rates right now. Nothing moves as quickly as interest rates, right now they are fluctuating wildly. We haven’t seen interest rates move this fast and go this high since the 1980s. Rising rates create more challenges for owner-occupied buyers and not the cash buyers who are usually investors. The higher rates hurt the demand of the people who need to get a loan in order to buy. Owner-occupied purchases declined slightly from Q4 2021 (64.2%) to Q1 2022 (64%). The majority of owner-occupied buyers purchased between $500,000 and $1,000,000.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 3/25/2022
The newness of the market frenzy has worn off. Buyers are exhausted and sellers hesitate to list, unsure where they will go. While we know that this market will not last forever, no market ever does, we do not need to wait for the other shoe to drop. Real estate moves slowly and as long as we watch it closely and carefully, we should have a general idea of what to expect.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 3/18/2022
Demand is stable. Do not let the headlines fool you, demand is not crazy high right now, it is stable. It seems that demand is so high because of the extremely low inventory. Remind sellers on the fence that it will not last forever. Demand may further weaken, or inventory could rise; both of which limit the strength of the seller’s market.