I recently had the privilege of attending the AZ Dealmakers event on January 27, 2022. It is an event that includes industry leaders in the residential new construction arena. The presenters included economists, housing analysts, builders, lenders, and more. The conversation was all about the future of new home development in Arizona. These are my notes and takeaways from the event.
Category Archives: AZ Real Estate
Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 2/4/2022
Inventory is still declining, demand remains consistent, and prices are still increasing. There is no relief in sight. The anticipated January inventory increase never materialized. The expected foreclosure boom didn’t come. The builders are constrained as ever. Mortgage rates are up. Something has to give, but what and when? Our buyers are exhausted and potential sellers don’t know where they will go when they sell.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 1/21/2022
In late summer/early fall, we almost had a supply increase but inventory started declining again in October and now we are at all time, record lows for available inventory. The question is: will it go up or down? All we can do is watch the numbers. There are no trends to help us predict, there is no seasonality to use as a baseline. Earlier today there were fewer than 4800 active listings in Greater Phoenix. These levels do not support our population of over 5 million people. The last time we had 20,000 active listings was 2016 and that was a seller’s market.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 1/14/2022
After nearly two years of headlines and non-experts forecasting a crash, a recent headline reads, “Housing costs will be ‘permanently higher’ following pandemic: Study” I expect to see more headlines like this and hopefully, they will reduce the, “I’ll wait until prices go back down” comments. Waiting has proven to be incredibly expensive. In 2021 alone, Greater Phoenix saw a 28% appreciation rate, and the entire country increased by about 15%. Emotionally, the 2005 market felt a lot like the 2021 market, but the fundamentals of those markets were entirely different. Simply put the 2005 market was based on tremendous demand while the 2021 market was based on nearly non-existent supply.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 1/7/2022
“Buy land, they’re not making it anymore.” ~Mark Twain On June 19, 2020 I wrote, “Econ 101 taught us about supply and demand. To measure the health of the real estate market we look at new listings AKA supply, and new pendings AKA demand. When demand out paces supply, prices go up. This has beenContinueContinue reading “Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 1/7/2022”
AZ Economic & Real Estate Update 12/29/2021
Persistently low inventory combined with above normal demand has driven a 30% median sales price increase this year. Will inventory increase in January? If the market follows past trends then yes. If the market continues like it did in early 2021 then maybe not. We will know more very soon.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 12/17/2021
Remember at the beginning of the year we hoped for answers and less political strife? Whether or not those were accomplished remains to be seen but one thing is for sure, 2021 was a year of records. Nationally, median sales prices peaked, for sale inventory bottomed, average days on market bottomed, over-asking price sales peaked, mortgage rates hit all-time lows, and second home demand surged.
AZ Economic & Real Estate Update
In this 15 minute video, Lydia Wietsma and I discuss the latest in jobs, inflation, population, shifting markets, and foreclosures. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QFcxnOpD2c
Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 12/10/2021
When you are asked, “How is the market?” what do you say? Is it a great time to buy? Is it a great time to sell? Is it a great time to be a homeowner? I would say yes to all of those. The data supports the continued growth, continued strength, and continued appreciation – just at a slower rate.
Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 12/3/2021
Yesterday I had lunch with three of Greater Phoenix’s premier real estate analysts. As the conversation moved from appreciation rates to price reductions to data quality to seasonality, the question kept coming up, “What do you think will happen in 2022?” It is forecast season after all. Time to reflect on the year that was and plan for the year ahead.