Afternoon Bite 8/3/2020 (Video)

Every Monday afternoon Amber Kovarik and I talk about what happened this week in our local and national real estate market in 15 minutes or less.

Today’s Takeaways:

Communication with your clients is key. Be sure to share what is going on in real estate. The real estate industry is the driving force in our economic recovery. Things are happening quickly, demand is high, inventory is low, prices are increasing. This is a great time to be a seller and get top dollar. It is also a great time to buy with mortgage interest rates at historic lows.

Lending:

  • Usually, there are about $2.5 trillion in loans being pushed through the pipeline, today it is $10 trillion. Four times more volume than usual!
  • Mortgages in forbearance declined again for the sixth week in a row. 7.74% of mortgages are in forbearance which is roughly 3.9 million loans. (MBA)
  • About 1.8 million loans in forbearance are seriously delinquent on their mortgage payments. (KCM)
  • 77% of the past due owners have at least 20% equity and 90% have at least 10% equity. (KCM)

The AZ Market:

  • Cromford Market Index (CMI): The CMI is the best leading indicator available (balance is 100, above 100 is a seller’s market, below 100 is a buyer’s market, prices rise at 110, and drop at 90). Yesterday it was 312.9 (matching the CMI’s record high from the spring of 2005), higher than the pre-COVID peak of 241, and more than double bottom we hit on May 15 of 145.2. Despite the over 15 point increase in the past week, the increase is slowing, slightly, which is good.
  • Supply: The available inventory continues to stabilize; it just happens to be at an extremely low level. As of yesterday, our inventory is 62.5% below normal. Active listings excluding under contract accepting backups (UCB) are down 42% year over year and 11% month over month.
  • Typically, the second half of the year sells less than the first half. Starting in July we tend to see an increase in available listings and that increase remains through November. It is too early to tell if 2020 will fit the pattern.
  • Demand: Pending sales are up 17% year over year, which is significant given how much lower our inventory is today. Our demand is 17.2% above normal and continues to increase.

Published by Sarah Perkins

Sarah has been with Lawyers Title of Arizona since 2004. As an award-winning sales executive, Sarah's role is to bring transactions to Lawyers Title. To do this, she focuses on supporting her clients and helping them navigate the ever-changing real estate space through thorough research and understanding of current trends impacting today's home buyers and sellers.

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