This Week in (Greater Phoenix) Real Estate 10/19/2020

In this 13 minute video, Amber Kovarik and I discuss the latest on housing, lending, and the economy. We go into detail on supply & demand, future projections, warning for waiting, strategies to help buyers get their offers accepted, equity positions, and more!

Today’s Takeaways:

Housing continues to outperform all other economic sectors. It is bolstering our economy and keeping many people employed. There are many outside pressures pushing very hard and yet real estate continues to amaze economists and industry experts alike. Stay mindful of the misleading headlines and continue sharing current information with your clients.

Logan Mohtashami writes on HousingWire, “Stay positive, healthy and safe – and try not to create problems for yourselves by buying into boy-band folklore and fairytales.”

Supply & Demand:

Throughout the entire pandemic real estate as outperformed expert’s forecasts and economists have been surprised and surprised again by the resilience of the residential market. Check out these leading indicators:

Inventory:

Nationwide inventory is down 38% and the national median sales price is up 12.9% year over year to $350,000. (Realtor.com)

Affordability:

Ivy Zelman, a premier real estate expert, and several other economists have a warning and advice for us in real estate. It is to take advantage now of the historic low rates. The low inventory is likely to stay for a long period of time, especially in the move up market. This pushes up prices. The low mortgage rates are making homes more affordable driving up demand. These rates will not last forever and as rates increase along with the price increases, fewer people will want to move or be able to move. And more people will want to stay with their incredibly low rates. Creating a slowing of the market. Zelman calls it an “immobile market” and believes we will start seeing it in 2022. She expects 2021 to remain strong. But as the economy rebounds and gets healthier the interest rates will rise. A quarter point increase in rates equals a 3% increase in monthly payment which hurts affordability.

The bottom line is that now is the time to be talking to everyone you know who is even slightly considering a move. Now is the time they can sell and take advantage of the low rates and the fast sales. If they are waiting, they will only be waiting for higher prices and tougher affordability which could lead to longer sales times. Based on her projections we have 15 months to get everyone into their dream home now before we see a potential market shift. And that market shift is only a slowness, no depreciation and certainly no crash. She says there is about a 0% chance of a foreclosure crisis.

Zelman said, “Whatever they are waiting for, there is no good reason to wait. Waiting will only cost the consumer more.” She said now is the time to take advantage of this once in a lifetime opportunity.

Forbearance & Equity:

  • Total loans in forbearance dropped from 3.4 million to 3.2 million last week bring the percentage down to 6.32% from 6.81%.
  • Two-thirds of borrowers exiting forbearance were current, repaid forborne amounts, or moved into a permanent loan modification. (MBA)
  • Will not see a flood of foreclosures, American homeowners have 20 year highs in equity.

Please share this with your colleagues and clients.

Copyright 2020 by Sarah Perkins

Published by Sarah Perkins

Sarah has been with Lawyers Title of Arizona since 2004. As an award-winning sales executive, Sarah's role is to bring transactions to Lawyers Title. To do this, she focuses on supporting her clients and helping them navigate the ever-changing real estate space through thorough research and understanding of current trends impacting today's home buyers and sellers.

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