Afternoon Bite 7/20/2020 (Video)

Every Monday afternoon Amber Kovarik and I talk about what happened this week in our local and national real estate market in 15 minutes or less.

Today’s Takeaways:

Know your numbers to communicate what is really happening in real estate. Provide good information to buyers, sellers, and borrowers. Without actual numbers, it is difficult for a potential consumer to make decisions.

• According to the US Census Bureau Household Pulse Study, of the nearly 74 million renter-occupied housing units in the country, roughly 16% did not make their June payment. And of the nearly 150 million owner-occupied properties in the country, 5.5% did not make their June payment.
• In Arizona, of the just over 1.6 million renter-occupied properties 9% did not make their June payment. And of the nearly 3.5 million owner-occupied properties in AZ, only 3.3% did not make their June payment. (US Census Bureau Household Pulse Study)
• Mortgages in forbearance declined again, for the fourth week in a row. 8.18% of all mortgages are in forbearance, down from 8.39% the previous week. (Mortgage Bankers Association)
• One-third of mortgages in forbearance are late on their payments. Two-thirds are current. (KCM)
• Going deeper, of all the mortgages in active forbearance that are late on their mortgage, 77% have at least 20% equity. Only 10% of the past due mortgages have 10% or less equity. (Black Knight)
• There are two types of unemployment temporary and Core or permanent unemployment. June’s Core unemployment was 5.9%. For comparison, it was 10.5% in April 2010 and 5% in February 2017. (KCM)
• According to the US Census Bureau, 46% of the people who do not have a job and are over the age of 18 live in households with an income of less than $50,000 a year. These households tend to rent.
• As economies reopen, we will likely see increases in listings. However, with the surges of new COVID-19 cases across the country (AZ isn’t the worst anymore!) sellers may delay selling, keeping inventories low and prices rising quickly.
• As the CARES Act is set to expire at the end of the month, delinquencies may rise and that may impact housing however, with the high equity rates, the potential “distressed“ listings will still be regular sales.

Conclusion:

Windermere Chief Economist Matthew Gardner said, “We are exactly 120 days into this pandemic and, as much as there were some who fully anticipated that the U.S. housing market would have collapsed already, it simply hasn’t happened — and won’t happen.”