the AZ market

Category: National Real Estate

  • Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 10/23/2020

    During recessions housing always does well, except when the recession is caused by housing. Despite external pressure, real estate continues to amaze economists and industry experts alike. Stay mindful of the misleading headlines and continue sharing current information with your clients. Logan Mohtashami wrote, “Stay positive, healthy and safe – and try not to create problems for yourselves by buying into boy-band folklore and fairytales.”

    The AZ Market:

    Cromford Market Index (CMI): Is the best leading indicator available (balance is 100, prices rise at 110, and drop at 90). Yesterday it was 354.3. The pre-COVID peak was 241 on March 20 then dropped to 145.2 May 15 and has been rising since.

    Supply: Inventory is 63% below normal. Active listings excluding UCB crept up slightly to about 8,400 but is still down 43% year over year.

    Southeast Valley New Listings: This a bi-weekly comparison of new listings in 2019 and 2020 for Tempe, Mesa, Chandler, Gilbert, Apache Junction, and Queen Creek. 2019 followed the typical annual cycle showing more activity in the first half of the year. 2020 is not following any typical patterns. Which makes it impossible to know what the orange line will do next.

    Demand: Pending sales are up 24% year over year, incredible considering the low inventory. Our demand continues to rise quickly and is 31% above normal.

    Sales & Prices: Monthly closed listings are up 21% year over year. The median sales price is $330,000, up 16.8% year over year. The median sales price has increased by 12% since June.

    Southeast Valley New Listings, Pendings, and Closings:  This week over week comparison for Tempe, Mesa, Chandler, Gilbert, Apache Junction, and Queen Creek since March 15 illustrates our pandemic real estate rollercoaster. The last few weeks have hit peaks yet still show volatility.

    National Real Estate:

    • Luxury sales increased by 42% year over year in Q3 2020. (Redfin)
    • Existing home sales surged 21% in September year over year, pushing us to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.5 million sales, all while inventory is at record lows. (NAR)
      • Pre-pandemic 2020 projections were for about 5.8 million sales.
      • In 2019 there were 5.35 million sales.
    • Rental growth is outpacing homeownership growth. Roughly 2/3 of households are owner-occupied while 1/3 are rentals. Lately, especially in the more expensive urban areas, rentals make up 50% of households. (Inman)
    • Through the first 9 months of 2020 there were 400,000 fewer listings on the market than there were through the first 9 months of 2019. (KCM)
    • Phoenix is the #2 metro area for in-migration from March through September. (Orbital Insight)
      • Nationwide people are moving to more favorable climates, with more favorable taxes, lower cost of living, and less social unrest. (Ivy Zelman)
    • Of the 15.9 million people who moved from February through July; 28% said they moved to avoid getting sick, 23% due to college campus closures, 20% to be with family, and 18% for financial reasons. (USPS)

    Affordability & Moving Trends:

    A growing number of experts are voicing concerns about sustainability and affordability. While the sky rocking prices are nice for sellers, more inventory and slower appreciation lead to a healthy housing market.

    • Nationwide total Inventory is down 38% year over year and down 41% for single-family homes. (NAR)
    • The national median sales price is up nearly 15% year over year to $350,000. (NAR)
    • Over the past 10 years, new household formation for owned properties has increased by about 5%. It has increased by 10% for new household formation for rented properties. Much of this is due to the lower homeownership rates for Millennials. (Zelman, US Census)
      • Population growth in Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Texas, and Nevada was 20% from 2010-2020.
      • Population growth in Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New York, Illinois, and California was 3% from 2010-2020.
      • Population growth in West Virginia was negative during the same time period.
    • From 1998-2002, 15% of Americans moved each year.
    • From 2013-2018, 11% of Americans moved each year.
    • In 2019 it was 9.8% of the population. (Ivy Zelman)

    Commercial Real Estate:

    • Retail sector rent collections increased in September to 83.16%, up from August’s 80.80%, and July’s 78.02%. (Datex)
    • At 5.8%, Phoenix had the largest single family, rental appreciation in the country in August, year over year. Nationwide the increase was 2.1%. (Corelogic)

    Wall Street:

    • More and more real estate companies are going public via IPO or SPAC.
    • On August 18 the S&P 500 closed higher than the previous all-time high on February 19, thus ending the shortest bear market in history. (Jeremy Kisner, Surevest)

    Real Estate News:

    • NAR has proposed changes to the Realtor social media professional standards in order to reduce discriminatory posts. Critics on both sides are upset about the proposal either being not enough or too controlling. Whether or not these changes will be adopted, expect changes to come.
    • FHFA and FHA extended pandemic forbearance plan options to single family owners with FHA loans through 12/31/2020. It was initially set to expire 10/30/2020. FHA forbearance plans are 6 months with an option to extend for an additional 6 months.
    • The anti-trust lawsuit the Department of Justice filed against Google on Tuesday may create a new timelines for the seller paid buyer commission anti-trust lawsuit against NAR and other entities. Many question if Amazon and Facebook will be next.
    • A recent article from Mike DelPrete, real estate tech consultant, illustrated the downward pressure on commissions coming from Opendoor and Zillow, both offering 2.25% co-broke versus the ARMLS average of 2.8%.

    Lending:

    • According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), purchase mortgage originations for 2021 are expected to increase by 8.5% from 2020. They expect 2021 will hit an all-time record of $1.54 trillion!
    • This week we hit another record low on mortgage interest rates. (MBA)
    • This chart shows 50 years of interest rates. My parents bought their first house in 1980 at 18%

    Delinquencies:

    • Over 6 million households (renters and owners) were either late or missed their full or partial payment in September. (MBA, RIHA)
      • 8.5% or 2.82 million renters missed their payment.
      • 7.1% or 3.37 million owners missed their payment.
    • At the beginning of April, 3% of renters were receiving unemployment benefits, at the end of September it was 7%. (MBA, RIHA)
    • At the beginning of April, 3% of homeowners with a mortgage were receiving unemployment benefits, at the end of September, it remained at 3%. (MBA, RIHA)
    • Landlords lost roughly $9.2 billion due to unpaid rents during Q3 2020, an improvement over Q2 2020. (MBA, RIHA)
    • Lenders lost roughly $19.4 billion due to unpaid mortgages during Q3 2020. (MBA, RIHA)
    • Early-stage delinquencies, less than 90 days, have dropped down to pre-pandemic levels. (Black Knight)
    • Seriously delinquent, 90+ days, mortgages dropped by 43,000 in September. The first sizeable drop since the onset of COVID 19. (Black Knight)

    Forbearance:

    • Mortgages in forbearance dropped from 6.32% to 5.92% to roughly 3 million loans, down from the previous week’s 3.2 million loans. (MBA)
    • This removes another 200,000 from forbearance programs. One reason given for the 400,000 over the past two weeks coming off is that borrowers do not know they can stay on or further negotiate their plans. If borrowers do not make any phone calls or connect with their lenders or servicers they are automatically being removed from their forbearance plan. This is a big deal.

    “The share of loans in forbearance declined across all loan types, primarily because of borrower forbearance plans expiring at the six-month mark. Federally backed loans under the CARES Act are eligible to be extended for up to 12 months, but borrowers must contact their servicer for an extension. Without that contact, borrowers exit forbearance, whether they are delinquent or current on their loan.

    Borrowers with federally backed mortgages should contact their servicer if they still have a hardship due to the pandemic.”

    Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist

    Resources:

    Unemployment:

    • In September Arizona’s unemployment rate was 6.7%. National unemployment was 7.9%. (Elliott Pollack)
    • Last week there were 787,000 in initial unemployment claims, down 55,000 from the previous week. (US DOL)
    • Continuing unemployment was 8,373,000 a drop of 1,024,000. This number is moving in the right direction! (US DOL)

    Arizona Facts:

    • Arizona has the 3rd lowest percentage of persons born in state at 39.9%. We are behind Nevada at 27.2% and Florida at 35.8%. Louisiana has the highest at 77.6%. (Elliot Eisenberg)
    • The Greater Phoenix Economic Council (GPEC) was named top economic development organization in the country for cities with populations of 500,000 or more. (Rose Law)

    Final Thoughts:

    There are pandemic winners and losers. The winners are those who sell goods and real estate. The losers are those who sell services, entertainment, and travel. Keep in mind that as the economy gets healthier, mortgage rates will increase and real estate demand will slow. Set this stage with your clients today and guide them through their decision making.

    Please share this with your colleagues and clients.

    Copyright 2020 by Sarah Perkins

  • AZ Forbearance Update (Video) 10/21/2020

    In this 13 minute video, Lydia Wietsma and I discuss the latest news in forbearance and emerging trends and where borrowers can go for help. We have some suggestions for conversations with clients and borrowers. The bottom line is that people have options but they have to take action, watch the full video for details.

    Forbearance:

    • Over 6 million households (renters and owners) were either late or missed their full or partial payment in September.
    • 8.5% or 2.82 million renters missed their payment.
    • 7.1% or 3.37 million owners missed their payment.
    • Mortgages in forbearance dropped from 6.32% to 5.92% to roughly 3 million loans, down from the previous week’s 3.2 million loans.
    • This removes another 200,000 from forbearance programs. One reason given for the 200,000 this week and last week coming off is that borrowers do not know they can stay on or further negotiate their plans. If borrowers do not make any phone calls or connect with their lenders or servicers they are automatically being removed from their forbearance plan. This is a big deal.

    Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist said, “The share of loans in forbearance declined across all loan types, primarily because of borrower forbearance plans expiring at the six-month mark. Federally backed loans under the CARES Act are eligible to be extended for up to 12 months, but borrowers must contact their servicer for an extension. Without that contact, borrowers exit forbearance, whether they are delinquent or current on their loan. Borrowers with federally backed mortgages should contact their servicer if they still have a hardship due to the pandemic.”

    Silver Lining:

    According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), purchase mortgage originations for 2021 are expected to increase by 8.5% from 2020. They expect 2021 will hit an all time record of $1.54 trillion!

    The added demand, to an already high demand market, will continue pushing prices up which will help struggling homeowners who need to sell. They will have a greater equity position giving them more options and having options is good.

    Resources:

  • Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 10/16/2020

    Residential real estate is outperforming the rest of the economy. The strong market going into the pandemic combined with historic low interest rates enabled to us to get here. We learned that these low rates trump COVID and our home is our castle. Despite the unexpected growth we are experiencing today, many experts are seeing warning signs around future affordability.

    The AZ Market:

    Cromford Market Index (CMI): Is the best leading indicator available (balance is 100, prices rise at 110, and drop at 90). Yesterday it was 353.9, way above the pre-COVID peak of 241 and nearly 210 points above the 145.2 we hit on May 15.

    Supply: We stand at 1.4 months of supply and as of yesterday, our inventory is 63.4% below normal. Active listings excluding UCB crept up slightly to about 8,500 down 43% year over year. Today houses are like hand sanitizer and toilet paper in March, they are flying off the shelves.

    Demand: Pending sales are up 36% year over year, incredible considering the time of year and low inventory. Our demand is nearly 30% above normal. Demand rates slowed early in September and picked up speed towards the end of the month and continue into October.

    Sales & Prices: Monthly closed listings are up 23% year over year. The median sales price is $331,343, up 17.8% year over year. The median sales price has increased by 12% since June.

    Southeast Valley New Listings, Pendings, and Closings:  This week over week comparison for Tempe, Mesa, Chandler, Gilbert, Apache Junction, and Queen Creek since March 15 illustrates our pandemic real estate rollercoaster. The last few weeks have hit peaks yet still show volatility.

    National Real Estate:

    Throughout the entire pandemic real estate as outperformed expert’s forecasts and economists have been surprised and surprised again by the resilience of the residential market. Check out these leading indicators:

    For those who have growing fear of a repeat housing market crash, please read my post comparing the 2005 and 2020 markets here https://theazmarket.com/2020/09/11/phoenix-area-real-estate-update-9-11-2020/ and this chart illustrates the extreme supply differences between then and now. The oversupply, among other things, brought prices down. Today’s extreme undersupply is driving prices up with no end in sight.

    Nationwide inventory is down 38% and the national median sales price is up 12.9% year over year to $350,000. (Realtor.com)

    Affordability:

    Ivy Zelman, a premier real estate expert, and several other economists have a warning and advice for us in real estate. It is to take advantage now of the historic low rates. The low inventory is likely to stay for a long period of time, especially in the move up market. This pushes up prices. The low mortgage rates are making homes more affordable driving up demand. These rates will not last forever and as rates increase along with the price increases, fewer people will want to move or be able to move. And more people will want to stay with their incredibly low rates. Creating a slowing of the market. Zelman calls it an “immobile market” and believes we will start seeing it in 2022. She expects 2021 to remain strong. But as the economy rebounds and gets healthier the interest rates will rise. A quarter point increase in rates equals a 3% increase in monthly payment which hurts affordability.

    The bottom line is that now is the time to be talking to everyone you know who is even slightly considering a move. Now is the time they can sell and take advantage of the low rates and the fast sales. If they are waiting, they will only be waiting for higher prices and tougher affordability which could lead to longer sales times. Based on her projections we have 15 months to get everyone into their dream home now before we see a potential market shift. And that market shift is only a slowness, no depreciation and certainly no crash. She says there is about a 0% chance of a foreclosure crisis.

    Zelman said, “Whatever they are waiting for, there is no good reason to wait. Waiting will only cost the consumer more.” She said now is the time to take advantage of this once in a lifetime opportunity.

    Commercial Real Estate:

    • Average apartment has shrunk by 9.7% since 2010. (RCLCO Real Estate Advisors)
    • Commercial investors are preparing for big opportunity in commercial real estate come Q2 2021 and Q3 2021 as forbearance and other protections, coined Compassionate Capitalism, expire. (Bisnow)
    • Arizona and Utah are the strongest performers for commercial real estate across all asset classes, this is likely due to lower cost of living, lower taxes, less social unrest, and high quality of life. (Phoenix Business Journal)
    • Federal guidance allows landlords to start eviction proceedings before the 12/31/2020 moratorium expiration. This is a likely response to the surge of lawsuits filed against the federal government by several landlord trade groups. (Washington Post)
    • Build to rent communities are on the rise and expected to continue as single family rentals increase continue to increase in demand. Today 22% of rentals are single family homes versus only 11% in 2000. (Elliott Pollack)

    Real Estate News:

    • Softbank’s multi-billion dollar Vision Fund is launching a special-purpose acquisition company or SPAC and is looking for a tech start-up to take public. This is the type of company that is taking Opendoor and UWM public. I expect to see this trend continue in the real estate disruptor space. This will bring large quantities of capital into the selected company. (Inman)
    • Finance of America announced they will go public via SPAC in early 2021 giving it a $1.9 billion valuation and $250 million. Blackstone will retain 70% ownership. (Wall Street Journal)
    • Offerpad is partnering with Aires, an international relocation firm. The partnership gives business access to all of Offerpad’s services including licensed Offerpad employees and their concierge services. (Inman)
    • Tempe is number 10 on Zillow and Yelp’s “Cityness Index” which rates suburbs based on affordability and quantity of urban amenities.

    Forbearance & Delinquencies:

    • Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac recently clarified that if a borrower missed a mortgage payment while in forbearance and did not make 3 timely, consecutive payments post-forbearance they are NOT eligible for new financing whether it is for a new purchase or refinance until 3 consecutive, timely, payments are made.
    • Forborne loans have to be paid back, forbearance is not forgiveness, it is a deferral only.
    • Total loans in forbearance dropped from 3.4 million to 3.2 million last week bring the percentage down to 6.32% from 6.81%.
    • Two-thirds of borrowers exiting forbearance were current, repaid forborne amounts, or moved into a permanent loan modification. (MBA)

    “The share of loans in forbearance declined across all loan types. With the forbearance program for federally backed loans under the CARES Act reaching the six-month mark, many borrowers saw their forbearance plans expire because they did not contact their servicer. Another reason for expirations was that borrower information needed to determine an appropriate loss mitigation option was not yet in place.”

    Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist
    • In September commercial and multifamily delinquencies decreased across all sectors. Lodging has the highest delinquency rate of 22.1%, down from 23.5% in August. Multifamily has the lowest delinquency rate of 1.7%, down from 1.9% in August. (MBA)
    • Americans have equity, a foreclosure wave is unlikely, a trickle may happen. 42% of American own their home free and clear. (John Burns Consulting)

    Resources:

    Unemployment:

    • Arizona unemployment is up last week but down from a month ago. We also had 3 consecutive weeks with under 10,000 initial claims. (Elliott Pollack)
    • National initial unemployment claims increased last week by 53,000 to 898,000. (DOL)
    • Continuing unemployment claims decreased by 1,165,000 to 10,018,000, hopefully next week we can get below 10 million! (DOL)
    • Experts do not expect unemployment rates to rise. (KCM)
    • Unemployment is disproportionately impacting younger people and lower income earners predominantly employed in the service industry. We are seeing a slow recovery in that sector as well, this recovery will move the needle the fastest on our unemployment numbers.
    • Today’s economic downturn is performing very differently than past recessions in timelines.

    Final Thoughts:

    Housing continues to outperform all other economic sectors. It is bolstering our economy and keeping many people employed. There are many outside pressures pushing very hard and yet real estate continues to amaze economists and industry experts alike. Stay mindful of the misleading headlines and continue sharing current information with your clients. Logan Mohtashami write on HousingWire, “Stay positive, healthy and safe – and try not to create problems for yourselves by buying into boy-band folklore and fairytales.”

    Please share this with your colleagues and clients.

    Copyright 2020 by Sarah Perkins

  • This Week in (Greater Phoenix) Real Estate 10/12/2020

    In this 20 minute video, Amber Kovarik and I discuss the latest on housing, lending, and the economy. We go into detail on forbearance, obstacles when purchasing after leaving a forbearance program, helping buyers get their offers accepted, delinquencies, unemployment, and supply & demand in real estate. Greater Phoenix has had a 17% appreciation over the past 12 months!

    Delinquencies:

    • The national non-current (the combination of delinquent and in foreclosure) is 7.2%
    • AZ non-current rate is 5.7%. We have the 12th best rate in the country. Idaho has the lowest non-current rate at 3.8% and Mississippi has the highest non-current rate at 11.7%. (Black Knight)
    • 30-day delinquencies dropped in Q2 2020 indicating new delinquencies may have peaked. (Elliot Eisenberg)
    • Through September 22, 88.9% of mortgages were paid, up from 88.6% in August. (Black Knight)

    Exiting Forbearance:

    In order for a borrower to leave forbearance they have to make 3 consecutive payments and come up with a plan with their servicer or lender on how they will pay back the forborne amount that was deferred while they were in forbearance. One thing that is very important for everyone to know is that forborne payments will be repaid, they are not forgiven.

    Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac recently clarified that if a borrower missed a mortgage payment while in forbearance and did not make 3 timely, consecutive payments post-forbearance they are NOT eligible for new financing whether it is for a new purchase or refinance until 3 consecutive, timely, payments are made.

    There are a number of ways a borrower can leave forbearance, not all of them require the owner to sell their property. Some of these options include:

    • Utilizing a 401K in one of two ways.
      • Individuals are allowed to borrow from their 401K with the option of paying themselves back with interest, since it is a loan being paid back – essentially paying yourself back there are no penalties. Talk to your 401K administrator for details.
      • Through provisions of the CARES act an individual can also withdraw an amount of their 401K with no penalties. Again, talk to your 401K administrator for details.
    • Permanent loan modification or refinance, after making 3 payments in a row, to something that allows borrowers to stay. Some scenarios include adding the forborne amount at the end of the loan, some pay a lump sum to get caught up, some offer payment plans to get caught back up.
    • Rentals are in high demand with quickly appreciating values. What about moving out of the property and renting it out to make up the difference in payments.
    • Sell and buy something more affordable, after 3 payments in a row have been made. Pay off the loan and get a new loan with more agreeable terms.
    • Sell, pay off the loan and forborne amount and rent or move in with family.

    Resources:

    Unemployment:

    September’s numbers came out last Friday showing that our economy added 661,000 jobs. This was below expectations. They did revise up the total of new jobs from August though. The unemployment rate is now 7.9% and we have made up 11.5 million of the 22 million jobs lost, which is over 50%. (US Department of Labor)

    Please share this with your colleagues and clients.

    Copyright 2020 by Sarah Perkins

  • Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 10/9/2020

    Last week a client told me about an acquaintance of hers who had received their 3-month forbearance letter stating they now owed their lender $8,000. They got scared and sold their home to Opendoor. They did not know they had extension options or the ability to stay in their house. There is an extreme lack of information being shared on forbearance.

    On a recent webinar, I heard a representative from Freddie Mac say the servicers and Realtors need to be the ones talking about forbearance, not the lenders or GSEs (Fannie, Freddie, Ginnie). Yikes!

    Forbearance:

    Disclaimer: I do not think we are going towards a foreclosure crisis, nor do I believe that the forbearance numbers will be seriously detrimental to our market.

    The worst thing for the housing market is to have empty houses. We went through that 10 years ago. Forbearance is not new, but how they are structured today is. The CARES Act enabled significant changes to benefit the borrower. Forbearance is designed to keep homeowners in their homes, which keeps the housing market healthy.

    One thing to note is that borrowers in forbearance are considered delinquent and they are being reported as delinquent. The delinquency is not hurting their credit score though, for now. The forbearance protections are for mortgage loans. There could be negative credit score impacts for delaying payment of credit cards or car loans. Also, at least for Freddie Mac, when a borrower leaves their forbearance plan they do have a slight hit to their credit. The extent is unknown.

    For the past 17 weeks in a row, total loans in forbearance continue to drop. Last week the rate dropped to 6.81%, down from the previous week at 6.87%. This means roughly 3.4 million mortgages are in forbearance.

    There are many different forbearance plans so it is important for borrowers to talk with their mortgage lender or servicer to learn the options available. Most forbearance plans are 3 or 6 months long with options to extend. Given that we are now 6 months into the pandemic about 70% of loans in forbearance are on extension.

    “The significant churn in the labor market now, more than six months into the pandemic, is still causing financial distress for millions of homeowners. As a result, more than 70 percent of loans in forbearance are now in an extension.”  

    Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist

    Of the 6.1 million homeowners who have been in pandemic-related forbearance plans, 41% or 2.4M have since exited, with the vast majority of those borrowers currently making their payments.

    Record levels of equity continue to help mitigate foreclosure risk, with only 9% of homeowners in forbearance having less than 10% equity in their homes. Foreclosure filings were down over 80% in August year over year, mostly because of the foreclosure moratoriums. Once those are lifted, we will see the full extent. Ultimately, because of the record levels of equity, I do not see a huge rush of foreclosures.

    The extremely low levels of available housing inventory, here and across the country will continue pushing prices higher adding to the equity available to the homeowners, giving struggling borrowers more options. In Greater Phoenix, housing has appreciated 17% in the past 12 months. (Black Knight and MBA)

    Delinquencies:

    • The national non-current (combination of delinquent and in foreclosure) is 7.2%
    • AZ non-current rate is 5.7%. We have the 12th best rate in the country. Idaho has the lowest non-current rate at 3.8% and Mississippi has the highest non-current rate at 11.7%. (Black Knight)
    • 30-day delinquencies dropped in Q2 2020 indicating new delinquencies may have peaked. (Elliot Eisenberg)
    • Through September 22, 88.9% of mortgages were paid, up from 88.6% in August. (Black Knight)

    Exiting Forbearance:

    In order for a borrower to leave forbearance they have to make 3 consecutive payments and come up with a plan with their servicer or lender on how they will pay back the forborne amount that was deferred while they were in forbearance. One thing that is very important for everyone to know is that forborne payments will be repaid, they are not forgiven.

    There are a number of ways a borrower can leave forbearance, not all of them require the owner to sell their property. Some of these options include:

    • Utilizing a 401K in one of two ways.
      • Individuals are allowed to borrow from their 401K with the option of paying themselves back with interest, since it is a loan being paid back – essentially paying yourself back there are no penalties. Talk to your 401K administrator for details.
      • Through provisions of the CARES act an individual can also withdraw an amount of their 401K with no penalties. Again, talk to your 401K administrator for details.
    • Permanent loan modification or refinance, after making 3 payments in a row, to something that allows borrowers to stay. Some scenarios include adding the forborne amount at the end of the loan, some pay a lump sum to get caught up, some offer payment plans to get caught back up.
    • Rentals are in high demand with quickly appreciating values. What about moving out of the property and renting it out to make up the difference in payments.
    • Sell and buy something more affordable, after 3 payments in a row have been made. Pay off the loan and get a new loan with more agreeable terms.
    • Sell, pay off the loan and forborne amount and rent or move in with family.

    Resources:

    Unemployment:

    September’s numbers came out last Friday showing that our economy added 661,000 jobs. This was below expectations. They did revise up the total of new jobs from August though. The unemployment rate is now 7.9% and we have made up 11.5 million of the 22 million jobs lost, which is over 50%. (US Department of Labor)

    Elliott Pollack expects a full recovery of all industries in Arizona by the end of 2022. It would be great to be back at full employment in two years.

    The AZ Market:

    Cromford Market Index (CMI): Is the best leading indicator available (balance is 100, above 100 is a seller’s market, below 100 is a buyer’s market, prices rise at 110, and drop at 90). Yesterday it was 352.6, way above the pre-COVID peak of 241 and over 200 points above the 145.2 we hit on May 15.

    Supply: New listings have increased by 11% but they were absorbed as quickly as they arrived so our total inventory remains very low. As of yesterday, our inventory is 63.6% below normal. Active listings excluding UCB  crept up slightly to about 8,300 down over 42% year over year.

    Demand: Pending sales are up 25% year over year, huge despite our low inventory and time of year. Our demand is over 28% above normal. Demand rates slowed early in September and picked up speed towards the end of the month and continue into October.

    Sales & Prices: In September closing were up 11% year over year. The median sales price is $329,900, up 17% year over year. Healthy appreciation is 3% annually.

    Southeast Valley New Listings, Pendings, and Closings:  This week over week comparison for Tempe, Mesa, Chandler, Gilbert, Apache Junction, and Queen Creek since March 15 illustrates our pandemic real estate rollercoaster. You can really see the increase in sales in September!  

    Real Estate News:

    • NAR’s motion to dismiss the seller-paid buyer commission, class action lawsuit was denied. Discovery is ongoing. Patrick Kearns of Inman writes, “In denying the motion to dismiss, Judge Andrea Wood argued that the plaintiffs would have paid ‘substantially lower commissions,’ if not for the buyer broker commission rules, and the rules have created an artificial inflation of commission rates.”
    • Gary Keller announced Wednesday that he is stepping back from CEO to be the Chairman of the new holding company, KWx. Josh Team, will now be the President of Keller Williams Realty and will take over the majority of Gary Keller’s roles. (Inman)
    • In September the national median sales price reached $319,769, an all time high. (Redfin)
    • Utah MLS is the first MLS to adopt an API for its data feed. API is instant, IDX and RETS feeds are slow and clunky, this will enable data to transfer nearly immediately and will allow anyone connected to that API to aggregate the data more easily. The benefit is more accurate, faster data straight to the consumer. I expect all other MLS’s to follow suit. (Inman)
    • In 2019 the FTC opened an investigation into Opendoor investigating advertising on its website. (Inman)
    • Experts at Bankrate compiled a resource with the 50 best online mortgage lenders including the pros and cons of online lending, how to choose the best lender, and the key differences between a conventional lender and a fully remote process. Click here for the article.

    Realtor Survey:

    Jim Dalrymple with Inman surveyed Realtors across the country asking for an evaluation on how their business is doing now and how it was 6 months ago. These are the results:

    Final Thoughts:

    As many in our industry have the best months of our careers it is important to be mindful of outside influences on housing. There is no time for complacency, things have never changed faster.

    Please share this with your colleagues and clients.

    Copyright 2020 by Sarah Perkins

  • AZ Forbearance Update (Video) 10/7/2020

    Lydia Wietsma and I discuss the latest news in forbearance trends and where borrowers can go for help. We have some suggestions for borrowers to stay in their homes after they exit their forbearance programs. Click below to watch our 19 minute video.

    Today’s Takeaways:

    The worst thing for the housing market is to have empty houses. We went through that 10 years ago. This time around with the forbearance programs, they were designed to keep homeowners in their homes, which keeps the housing market healthy.

    Let’s talk about what we know. We know that for the past 17 weeks in a row, total loans in forbearance has continued to drop. Last week the rate dropped to 6.81%, down from the previous week at 6.87%. This means roughly 3.4 million mortgages in forbearance.

    “The significant churn in the labor market now, more than six months into the pandemic, is still causing financial distress for millions of homeowners. As a result, more than 70 percent of loans in forbearance are now in an extension.”  

    Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist

    In order for a borrower to leave forbearance they have to make 3 consecutive payments and come up with a plan with their servicer or lender on how they will pay back the forborne amount that was deferred while they were in forbearance. One thing that is very important for everyone to know is that forborne payments will be repaid, they are not forgiven.

    There are a number of ways a borrower can leave forbearance, not all of them require the owner to sell their property. Some of these options include:

    • Utilizing a 401K in two ways.
      • Individuals are allowed to borrow from their 401K with the option of paying themselves back with interest, since it is a loan being paid back, essentially paying yourself back there are no penalties. Talk to your 401K administrator for details.
      • Through provisions of the CARES act an individual can also withdraw an amount of their 401K with no penalties. Again, talk to your 401K administrator for details.
    • Permanent loan modification or refinance, after making 3 payments in a row, to something that allows borrowers to stay. Some scenarios include adding the forborne amount at the end of the loan, some pay a lump sum to get caught up, some offer payment plans to get caught back up.
    • Rentals are in high demand with quickly appreciating values. What about moving out of the property and renting it out to make up the difference in payments.
    • Sell and buy something more affordable, after 3 payments in a row have been made. Pay off the loan and get a new loan with more agreeable terms.
    • Sell, pay off the loan and forborne amount and rent/move in with family.

    We are watching total delinquencies as well, which is tougher to monitor but what we are seeing is that new single family delinquencies continue to drop but older delinquencies, 90 days and up are growing. Here is a chart that is hard to see but shows that residential delinquencies are decreasing. The huge one is lodging.

    I do want to touch briefly on unemployment. September’s numbers came out last Friday showing that our economy added 661,000 jobs. This was below expectations. They did revise up the total of new jobs from August though. The unemployment rate is now 7.9% and we have made up over 50% if jobs lost in March and April.

    Elliott Pollack expects a full recovery of all industries in Arizona by the end of 2022. It would be great to be back at full employment in two years.

    Please share this with your colleagues and clients.

    Copyright 2020 by Sarah Perkins

  • This Week in (Greater Phoenix) Real Estate 10/5/2020

    Every Monday I spend 15 minutes (or less) discussing what happened this week in real estate, lending, and the economy.

    I apologize for the blurry video! I tried a new platform today.

    Today’s Takeaways:

    Breaking News:

    Judge denied NAR’s motion to dismiss the class action buyer commission law suit filed 18 months ago. Expect more motions in the future. (Inman)

    The AZ Market:

    Supply: New listings have increased by 11% but they were absorbed as quickly as they arrived so our total inventory remains very low. As of yesterday, our inventory is 63.8% below normal. Active listings excluding under contract accepting backups (UCB) are still around 8,100 (we should have 25,000) down over 41% year over year.

    Demand: Pending sales are up 25% year over year, huge despite our low inventory and time of year. Our demand is nearly 27% above normal. Demand rates slowed early in September and picked up some speed towards the end of the month.

    National Real Estate:

    In August we hit 6 million (seasonally adjusted annual rate) existing home sales. The last time we hit that number was December of 2006. Sales were up 10.5% year over year. This is particularly surprising since there were only 1.41 million properties (annualized rate) on the market in August, the lowest level on record, with limited data prior to 1999. (Matthew Gardner, Windermere Chief Economist)

    The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index illustrates consumer confidence for buying and selling real estate. According to the most recent update, from August, consumers believe it is a good time to buy. The buyer consumer confidence index has fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. What is interesting is that seller consumer confidence has not fully recovered. This is seen in our low inventory levels with continued high demand.

    Many expect that when consumer confidence for selling fully rebounds is when we will see an increase in inventory. As sellers gain confidence and enter the market the extreme sales price appreciation will slow and buyers will have more choices. This will be good for buyers and for the overall health of the real estate market.

    Real Estate News:

    • Realtor.com and Rocket Mortgage announced an advertising partnership that directs buyers to Rocket Mortgage’s pre-approval application for a digital mortgage approval.
    • Facebook announced it is working on a new augmented reality glasses project. Remember Google Glass? Similar but with newer technology. The project is several years from completion. Proptech investors are already planning on how to use it within real estate and property management. Starting in San Francisco and Seattle, Facebook has teams out collecting information via sensors gathering video, audio, and location data. Facebook is collecting data from inside buildings as well.

    Forbearance:

    For the 16th straight week loans in forbearance decreased. They went from 6.93% to 6.87% dropping the number to roughly 3.4 million mortgages enrolled in a forbearance plan. (MBA)

    Remind your clients that there are options to keep them in their houses.

    Resources:

    Economy:

    • College enrollment is down 2.5% year over year. During economic downturns, community colleges tend to see an increase in enrollment however, this year enrollment is down 7.5%. (National Student Clearinghouse Research Center)
    • Personal savings rates have increased to 24% compared to early March when they were 7%. Bank deposits are up $2 trillion in 6 months. (Matt Stephani, Cavanal Hill Investment Management)
    • Elliott Pollack expects that nearly all industries in Greater Phoenix will be fully recovered by the end of 2022 and that housing will continue being the strongest sector.
    • Nationally, new business applications dropped from 27,000 a week to 18,000 a week from mid-March through mid-April. By early July they were up to 40,000 a week, the average is 22,500 a week. Applications have dropped since July but remain 20% above normal. This economy is driving entrepreneurship! (Elliot Eisenberg)

    Please share this with your colleagues and clients.

    Copyright 2020 by Sarah Perkins

  • Greater Phoenix Real Estate Update 10/2/2020

    Our economic recovery is complicated and Q4 2020 will be a continuation of the complication. I expect we will see more of the same; tight inventory, high demand, continued recovery – slower than we would like but progress nonetheless, and holiday commercials will replace political ads.

    The AZ Market:

    Real estate consultant Jim Belfiore expects to see a coming wave of new home construction in Pinal County, specifically in Coolidge, Florence, and Casa Grande.

    Cromford Market Index (CMI): Is the best leading indicator available (balance is 100, above 100 is a seller’s market, below 100 is a buyer’s market, prices rise at 110, and drop at 90). Yesterday it was 350.2, way above the pre-COVID peak of 241 and over 200 points above the 145.2 we hit on May 15. The past 7 days saw a 5.1 point increase.

    Supply: New listings have increased by 11% but they were absorbed as quickly as they arrived so our total inventory remains very low. As of yesterday, our inventory is 63.8% below normal. Active listings excluding under contract accepting backups (UCB) are still around 8,100 (we should have 25,000) down over 41% year over year.

    Southeast Valley New Listings: This a bi-weekly comparison of new listings in 2019 and 2020 for Tempe, Mesa, Chandler, Gilbert, Apache Junction, and Queen Creek. 2019 followed the typical annual cycle showing more activity in the first half of the year. 2020 is not following any typical patterns. Which makes it impossible to know what the orange line will do next.

    Demand: Pending sales are up 25% year over year, huge despite our low inventory and time of year. Our demand is nearly 27% above normal. Demand rates slowed early in September and picked up some speed towards the end of the month.

    Sales & Prices: In August, 35% of homes closed over asking price. Phoenix metro area closed sales are up nearly 17% year over year. The median sales price is $326,800, up 17% year over year. Healthy appreciation is 3% annually.

    Southeast Valley New Listings, Pendings, and Closings:  This week over week comparison for Tempe, Mesa, Chandler, Gilbert, Apache Junction, and Queen Creek since March 15 illustrates our pandemic real estate rollercoaster.

    National Real Estate:

    In August we hit 6 million (seasonally adjusted annual rate) existing home sales. The last time we hit that number was December of 2006. Sales were up 10.5% year over year. This is particularly surprising since there were only 1.41 million properties (annualized rate) on the market in August, the lowest level on record, with limited data prior to 1999. (Matthew Gardner, Windermere Chief Economist)

    The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index illustrates consumer confidence for buying and selling real estate. According to the most recent update, from August, consumers believe it is a good time to buy. The buyer consumer confidence index has fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. What is interesting is that seller consumer confidence has not fully recovered. This is seen in our low inventory levels with continued high demand.

    Many expect that when consumer confidence for selling fully rebounds is when we will see an increase in inventory. As sellers gain confidence and enter the market the extreme sales price appreciation will slow and buyers will have more choices. This will be good for buyers and for the overall health of the real estate market.

    Do not let the idea of rising inventory levels scare you. We desperately need more available listings across the country. Nationwide available inventory is down 36.4% year over year. (NAR)

    New home sales hit a 14 year high in August and crossed the 1M in sales mark. While new home listings decreased by 4.1% in August. Labor shortages and high cost of lumber are likely factors. (Redfin)

    Commercial Real Estate:

    • 90.1% of apartment renters made full or partial payments by September 20, up from 90% in August. (National Multifamily Housing Council)
    • Investor confidence continues to struggle for commercial real estate in most sectors. (Green Street)

    Real Estate News:

    • Spencer Rascoff, the former CEO of Zillow, is co-chairing a new special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) with a goal of taking a tech company public. It is through a SPAC Opendoor and UWM will go public. (Inman)
    • Realtor.com and Rocket Mortgage announced an advertising partnership that directs buyers to Rocket Mortgage’s pre-approval application for a digital mortgage approval.
    • Facebook announced it is working on a new augmented reality glasses project. Remember Google Glass? Similar but with newer technology. The project is several years from completion. Proptech investors are already planning on how to use it within real estate and property management. Starting in San Francisco and Seattle, Facebook has teams out collecting information via sensors gathering video, audio, and location data. Facebook is collecting data from inside buildings as well.

    Mortgage & Forbearance:

    • For the 16th straight week loans in forbearance decreased. They went from 6.93% to 6.87% dropping the number to roughly 3.4 million mortgages enrolled in a forbearance plan. (MBA)
    • Mortgage applications are up 22% year over year.

    “The share of loans in forbearance continues to decline and is now at a level not seen since mid-April. Many homeowners with GSE loans are exiting forbearance into a deferral plan and resuming their original mortgage payment, but waiting to pay the forborne amount until the end of the loan.”

    Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist

    Resources:

    Economy:

    • College enrollment is down 2.5% year over year. During economic downturns, community colleges tend to see an increase in enrollment however, this year enrollment is down 7.5%. (National Student Clearinghouse Research Center)
    • Personal savings rates have increased to 24% compared to early March when they were 7%. Bank deposits are up $2 trillion in 6 months. (Matt Stephani, Cavanal Hill Investment Management)
    • Elliott Pollack expects that nearly all industries in Greater Phoenix will be fully recovered by the end of 2022 and that housing will continue being the strongest sector.
    • Hotel occupancy rates in August in Arizona were 47.9%, up from 46.5% in July, and down from 64.6% in August 2019.
    • One in six or about 100,000 restaurants have closed permanently, leaving about 3 million people out of work and an expected $240 billion in losses by the end of the year. (New York Times)
    • In July, the most recent available data, US airlines carried 73% fewer passengers than in July 2019, better than the 96.1% drop seen in April 2020 compared to a year earlier. (US Department of Transportation)
    • Nationally, new business applications dropped from 27,000 a week to 18,000 a week from mid-March through mid-April. By early July they were up to 40,000 a week, the average is 22,500 a week. Applications have dropped since July but remain 20% above normal. This economy is driving entrepreneurship! (Elliot Eisenberg)

    Unemployment:

    • This morning September’s numbers were released and I will go deeper into those next week.
    • Elliott Pollack on Phoenix unemployment, “While the United States was losing 98 percent of all jobs created between the last recession and February, greater Phoenix only lost 41 percent.”
    • Initial unemployment claims were 837,000 last week, a decrease of 36,000. (US Department of Labor)
    • Last week, continuing unemployment decreased 980,000 dropping to 11,767,000. (US Department of Labor)

    Final Thoughts:

    Matthew Gardner said, “In all, the reports were very solid and show housing as being the shining light in an economy that is still mired by the COVID-19 pandemic.”

    Please share this with your colleagues and clients.

    Copyright 2020 by Sarah Perkins

  • AZ Forbearance Update (Video) 9/30/2020

    Lydia Wietsma and I discuss the latest news in forbearance trends and where borrowers can go for help. Freddie Mac shared some interesting info this week!

    Today’s Takeaways:

    Unemployment:

    The national unemployment rate is 8.4%. Weekly initial claims have dropped below 1 million but remain high. Our continuing unemployment has dropped below 13 million.

    Some headlines read “25 million American remain unemployed.” Those numbers are based on all of the different unemployment categories. We mostly talk about initial and continuing claims. There is also the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program which, for the first time ever, provides unemployment benefits to independent contractors who otherwise are not eligible for regular benefits. There are about 12 million people on this program. (US Department of Labor)

    Arizona has regained 60% of the jobs lost since in March and April and the state’s unemployment rate of 5.9%. Which is #3 for best performing state job market, behind Utah and Idaho. (Elliott Pollack)

    Most of the unemployment is focused in service sectors, which the largest group in leisure & hospitality including restaurants. Also, in this group are non-life threatening medical services like dentist offices. The average weekly income of these sectors is $400. This means that today’s level of unemployment benefits do replace lost wages. (Wells Fargo)

    An unemployment rate of 4.1%-4.7% is considered full employment. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wall Street Journal survey of economists projects 2023 to be the year we get back to being, at least close to full employment. (KCM)

    Demand:

    Real estate demand is pushing prices higher giving owners more equity and more options should they refinance, modify, or sell. If homeowners need to sell they will be able to do so easily and quickly without going into foreclosure or doing a short sale.

    28.7% of Redfin’s users looked to move to another area, up from 27.4%, and is the highest percentage yet. Sacramento, Austin, and Phoenix topped the charts for destination cities; affordability being one the biggest drivers.

    Our demand is 26% above normal.

    Given the unexpected, continued demand, despite high unemployment rates, major real estate companies adjusted their future price projections significantly. Zillow initially predicted a 3% decrease in home prices and now is predicting a 3.6% increase. Corelogic the outlier from the start went from a 6.6% decrease to a 0.6% increase. (must have missed the 16% appreciation in greater Phoenix!)

    Forebearance:

    • Total loans in forbearance dropped to 6.93%, down from 7.01% last week, continuing the 5-month decline. Roughly 3.5 million loans are in forbearance programs. (MBA)
    • Roughly 680,000 homeowners are late on their mortgage and are eligible for a forbearance plan but are not in a forbearance plan. A recent survey shows the lack of participation is due to confusion, fear, and lack of awareness of such options. (Wall Street Journal)
    • The CFPB, FHFA, HUD, VA, and USDA created a joint effort mortgage and rental assistance platform, for more information visit https://www.consumerfinance.gov/coronavirus/mortgage-and-housing-assistance/

    Freddic Mac & Forbearance:

    • In order to be approved for new forbearance programs, borrowers must show evidence of being negatively affected by COVID
    • Forbearance prevents foreclosure proceedings for a time period only. Borrowers in forbearance will have a hit to their credit score.
    • Freddie Mac is not contacting borrowers directly; it expects servicing companies and Realtors need to get the message out.
    • To find out if a loan is with Freddie Mac, click here https://ww3.freddiemac.com/loanlookup/
    • To find out if a loan is with Fannie Mae, click here https://www.knowyouroptions.com/loanlookup

  • This Week in (Greater Phoenix) Real Estate 9/28/2020

    Every Monday I spend 15 minutes discussing what happened this week in real estate, lending, and the economy.

    Today’s Takeaways:

    • In August resale home sales increased 10.5% year over year with the most sales since 2006. It was the 102nd straight month of annual gains. (NAR)
    • New homes crossed the one million sales threshold in August, the first time since 2006. (US Census Bureau)
    • Lumber shortages due to mill closures and massive wildfires have driven up prices 170%, adding, on average, $16,000 to the cost of a single-family new build. (NAHB)
    • Given the unexpected, continued demand, despite high unemployment rates, major real estate companies adjusted their future price projections significantly. Zillow initially predicted a 3% decrease in home prices and now is predicting a 3.6% increase. Corelogic the outlier from the start went from a 6.6% decrease to a 0.6% increase. (must have missed the 16% appreciation in greater Phoenix!)

    Supply: Inventory has actually increased by 11%, but it is easy to miss since it is absorbed so quickly.  As of yesterday, our inventory is 64.0% below normal!!! Active listings excluding under contract accepting backups (UCB) remain around 8,100 (we should have 25,000) down 42% year over year and down over 2.5% month over month. This is the time of year when we typically see inventory increases.

    New build permits were up 25.3% in August, year over year and up 11.9% year to date. (RL Brown)

    Demand: Pending sales up 23% year over year, huge despite our low inventory and time of year. Our demand is over 25% above normal. After demand increases began to slow, it has started increasing a little faster again.

    Zillow:

    Zillow announced on Wednesday that it is changing the structure of its iBuyer, Zillow Offers. Soon its iBuyer purchases and sales will be handled by a licensed, salaried, Zillow employee.

    This change will take effect January 2021 in Atlanta, Phoenix, and Tucson with other markets to follow. All properties for sale will be listed on the local MLS which means that Zillow Homes, the brokerage, and its agents are members of NAR. Zillow Offers currently operates in 25 markets nationwide.

    Combined with Zillow’s mortgage company, Zillow Home Loans, and title company, Zillow Closing Services, Zillow can now offer a complete end to end transaction.

    Zillow maintains its stance that it does not want to represent buyers and sellers outside of properties it does not own or purchase directly. Although many believe this is Zillow’s soft launch into traditional real estate.

    Unlike Opendoor and Offerpad who both now offer listing services, Zillow will continue working with its partner Realtors, non Zillow agent-employees, in referring the sellers of properties not purchased by the iBuyer. Zillow Offers currently purchases about 2% of all seller inquiries.

    Given Zillow Homes’ local MLS membership, Zillow will be adjusting its previous data feeds, which currently come from around 10,000 agreements, to come through a direct IDX feed. This will allow it complete access of current listing information and roughly 600 data feeds to manage. This is a game changer for Zillow. Not only does this reduce data costs, it will improve accuracy, timeliness, and provides the ability for far more detailed data aggregation. It will have the ability to have the accuracy of Redfin for its 200 million monthly unique visitors.  Web traffic and effective data aggregation are what built giants like Facebook, Amazon, and Google.

    The IDX feed may impact the brokerages who currently do not syndicate to Zillow.

    The appearance of listings on Zillow will be subject to the local MLS regulations. Buyer’s agents contact information will now be shown separately from the listing agent’s information. Premier Agents will see some changes in customer-facing advertising but not in lead flow.

    Zillow and Trulia will be discontinuing their “featured listings” option.

    Deutsche Bank, one of the world’s leading financial services providers and international investment bank, for the second month in a row upgraded Zillow’s stock price, this time due to Opendoor’s recent announcement of going public. The bank believes that Opendoor’s movement will draw further attention to iBuying thus driving more business to Opendoor and its biggest competitor in the iBuying space, Zillow Offers, meaning more business for Zillow Homes and its agents.  As they say, “a rising tide lifts all boats.”

    The research analysts said, “We see Zillow’s conversion to a more formal brokerage model as it relates to sales of Zillow Offers (ZO) homes in several markets as a natural evolution to improve unit economics in ZO and vertically integrate to better control the user experience and cross sell other Zillow products.”

    The bank sees this as a positive financial move for Zillow, furthering the separation from being a media company to becoming a portal with significantly greater earning potential.

    Mortgage & Forbearance:

    • Mortgage applications increased last week by 6.8% from the previous week. 64.3% of those applications were for refinances, up from 62.8% last week. (MBA)
    • Total loans in forbearance dropped to 6.93%, down from 7.01% last week, continuing the 5-month decline. Roughly 3.5 million loans are in forbearance programs. (MBA)
    • Roughly 680,000 homeowners are late on their mortgage and are eligible for a forbearance plan but are not in a forbearance plan. A recent survey shows the lack of participation is due to confusion, fear, and lack of awareness of such options. (Wall Street Journal)
    • The CFPB, FHFA, HUD, VA, and USDA created a joint effort mortgage and rental assistance platform, for more information visit https://www.consumerfinance.gov/coronavirus/mortgage-and-housing-assistance/

    Final Thoughts:

    Big money keeps getting bigger with sky-high valuations and it is coming after real estate, that isn’t new, but the volume of capital is. I expect demand to continue to be strong, as long as rates stay low. At some point, likely in the not too distant future, more homeowners will realize how much equity they are sitting on and will be inspired to list bringing up inventory levels and providing buyers more options.